پژوهشنامه خراسان بزرگ

پژوهشنامه خراسان بزرگ

تبیین پیشران‌های مؤثر بر آیندۀ گردشگری پایدار شهر سرخس با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران
2 دانشیار، گروه جغرافیا، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران
3 استاد تمام، مرکز تحقیقات کارآفرینی ایده‌پردازی و تجاری‌سازی، واحد سمنان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران
چکیده
رویکرد آینده‌نگاری با پرداختن به محدودۀ گسترده‌ای از شرایط آینده با اتخاذ رویکردهای مشارکتی و استدلالی در حوزۀ برنامه‌ریزی، تأکید بر یافتن عوامل اصلی و کلیدی و پیشران‌های توسعه دارد. میزان و نحوه اثر پیشران‌های مؤثر بر گردشگری پایدار در شهر سرخس با رهیافت آینده‌پژوهی از مهم‌ترین جنبه‌های این پژوهش است. داده‌های کیفی با پرسشنامۀ باز و از طریق مصاحبه و داده‌های کمی به‌صورت عددی و از طریق وزن‌دهی در نرم‌افزار SPSS تهیه گردید. در ادامه از داده‌ها و آنالیزهای به‌دست‌آمده در نرم‌افزار آینده‌پژوهی MICMAC استفاده شد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان می‌دهد ضریب همبستگی رگرسیونی بین میزان شاخص‌های مؤثر بر توسعه گردشگری در شهرستان سرخس برابر با 0/72 بوده که نشان‌دهنده این است که همبستگی خطی بین ابعاد مؤثر بر توسعه گردشگری در منطقه معنی‌دار است. همچنین، مقدار ضریب تبیین چندگانه برابر با 0/51است که نشان‌ می‌دهد 51% از واریانس‌های توسعه گردشگری در شهرستان سرخس توسط شاخص‌ها مؤثر تبیین می‌شود و مابقی سهم سایر متغیرهاست. خروجی حاصل از MICMAC نیز نشان می‌دهد، عوامل رونق اقتصادی و سرمایه‌گذاری به همراه عامل صنعتی شدن به‌عنوان پیشران‌های دو وجهی (دارای تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری) و عوامل زیست‌محیطی و مدیران و برنامه‌ریزان به‌عنوان عوامل تأثیرپذیر هستند. در این میان، آستان قدس رضوی به‌عنوان یک عامل مستقل عمل نموده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Explaining the drivers affecting the future of sustainable tourism in the city of Sarakhs with a future research approach

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Golmohammadi 1
Zeynab Karkehabadi 2
Abbas arghan 3
1 PhD student in geography and urban planning, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran
3 Full Professor, Ideation and Commercialization Entrepreneurship Research Center, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran
چکیده English

The approach of future studies focuses on addressing a wide range of future conditions by adopting participatory and argumentative approaches in the field of planning, emphasizing the identification of key factors and drivers of development. The extent and manner of the impact of effective drivers on sustainable tourism in the city of Sarakhs with a future-oriented approach are among the most important aspects of this research. Qualitative data was collected through open questionnaires, interviews, and quantitative data in numerical form through weighting in the SPSS software. Subsequently, the data and analyses obtained were used in the MICMAC futures research software. The results of this study indicate that the regression correlation coefficient between the level of factors affecting tourism development in Sarakhs County was 0.72, indicating that there is a significant linear correlation between the dimensions affecting tourism development in the region. Additionally, the multiple determination coefficient is 0.51, indicating that 51% of the variations in tourism development in Sarakhs County are explained by the effective indices, and the remaining share belongs to other variables. The output from MICMAC also shows that economic prosperity and investment, along with industrialization as two-way drivers (both influential and affected), and environmental factors and managers and planners as influenced factors. Among these, the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza acts as an independent factor.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Foresight
Tourism Drivers
Sustainable Tourism
Sarakhs City
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  • تاریخ دریافت 23 مرداد 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 28 آبان 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 24 بهمن 1403