نوع مقاله : تاریخ شهرسازی خراسان بزرگ
1 دکترا گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری،دانشکده آماد، دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی و تحقیقات راهبردی، تهران، ایران
2 دکترا گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Given that there are significant developments in the field of urbanization today, especially its preparation and security, therefore, future research and having a vision for the future in policy making can be useful strategies and ultimately increase the likelihood of a desirable future. The purpose of this study is to investigate the future security and safety consequences of population and migration to cities of North, Razavi and South Khorasan provinces. The research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. The method of data collection is also documentary and field. The trend analysis of foresight has been used for future research on migration developments. In this regard, at first the factors affecting urban planning and security in these provinces were identified and then scenario building was done. The results show that the distribution of variables affecting urban planning and security in Khorasan Razavi, North and South Khorasan provinces is highly unstable. Also 32 key factors and 7 factors affecting urban planning and security in Khorasan provinces are considered by experts and ratings in micmac software. Using Scenario Wizard software, 3 robust or probable scenarios, 8 high compatibility scenarios and 187 weak scenarios were extracted. Of the 3 and 8 scenarios, only the three scenarios that are more powerful than the other scenarios show the state of preparedness and urban security in the coming years.